## Wednesday, July 15, 2015

### Dividend Growth Calculations 2

What I want to talk about today is the difference between my spreadsheet calculations and what actually happened on a stock. I am comparing the results of my spreadsheet calculations with actual results from Royal Bank (TSX-RY) and RioCan (TSX-REI). Spreadsheet calculations smooth year to year calculations out so actual results and spreadsheet results will vary.

I redid the spreadsheets using the actual original yields, actual growth and actual original stock price. One section shows calculations starting from actual original yields and actual growth, but I calculated yearly dividend yield on original amounts and percentage of the stock's cost covered. Another section shows not only actual original yield and percentage of stock covered, but uses actual dividends granted each year.

So this first chart shows what has occurred after 5 years. I am comparing RY Spreadsheet calculations to RY Actual (that is what actually occurred) and RIO Spreadsheet calculations to RIO Actual. Titles are Original Yield, Dividend Growth over 20 years, Dividend yield on original cost after 5 years and Percentage of stock's cost paid after 5 years.

As you can see after 5 years the actual stock did better. In both these stocks earlier years had better dividend growth than later years.

Stock Ori Yield Div Growth Div Yield % of stock
RY SS 4.13% 11.56% 7.02% 28.65%
RY Actual 4.13% 11.56% 7.85% 30.20%
RIO SS 7.67% 2.92% 8.86% 41.85%
RIO Actual 7.67% 2.92% 10.09% 47.87%

After 10 years this is where both stock stand against the spreadsheet calculations. In Both Dividend Yield on the original stock cost and percentage of stock's cost covered are better.

Stock Ori Yield Div Growth Div Yield % of stock
RY SS 4.13% 11.56% 12.12% 78.10%
RY Actual 4.13% 11.56% 16.25% 92.18%
RIO SS 7.67% 2.92% 10.23% 90.17%
RIO Actual 7.67% 2.92% 12.12% 105.08%

After 15 years this is where both stock stand against the spreadsheet calculations. In Both Dividend Yield on the original stock cost and percentage of stock's cost covered are better.

Stock Ori Yield Div Growth Div Yield % of stock
RY SS 4.13% 11.56% 20.94% 163.09%
RY Actual 4.13% 11.56% 27.55% 219.73%
RIO SS 7.67% 2.92% 11.81% 145.97%
RIO Actual 7.67% 2.92% 12.60% 167.92%

After 20 years this is where both stock stand against the spreadsheet calculations. In the percentage of stock's cost covered both the actuals are better. However, if you notice the dividend yield on original costs are getting close with RY Spreadsheet calculation at 36.36% and the actual at 37.47%. For RIO, the spreadsheet calculation of dividend yield on original cost is a bit higher at 13.61% compared to the Actual of 13.61%.

Stock Ori Yield Div Growth Div Yield % of stock
RY SS 4.13% 11.56% 36.36% 310.88%
RY Actual 4.13% 11.56% 37.47% 389.57%
RIO SS 7.67% 2.92% 13.64% 210.41%
RIO Actual 7.67% 2.92% 13.61% 233.37%

See the full spreadsheet here.

On my other blog I am today writing about Saputo Inc. (TSX-SAP, OTC-SAPIF) ... continue...

This blog is meant for educational purposes only, and is not to provide investment advice. Before making any investment decision, you should always do your own research or consult an investment professional. I do research for my own edification and I am willing to share. I write what I think and I may or may not be correct.

See my site for an index to these blog entries and for stocks followed. Follow me on Twitter.